Dark Age Two

A fair and logical counterpoint to fears of the overpopulation of the Earth is the strong possibility of the opposite – a stark population decline.

To sustain a population of any social group, a total fertility rate of 2.0 is necessary. This means every woman would, on average, need to give birth to two children to sustain any given population. In a majority of the affluent, industrialized, ‘connected’ world, fertility rates are currently below 2.0; populations in those societies are in decline. An interactive map of global fertility rates 2023 helps to visualize this phenomenon. Notably, countries like Japan and South Korea will suffer from the most severe population within one or two generations. As this trend accelerates, such societies will be affected by a major increase in the average age of citizens. The elderly population outnumbering that of the young means that younger generations will be left caring for an aging population. Considering the time and resources involved in managing such shifts in population, the economic fallout is one major concern. It’s an existential crisis on the doorstep of many nations – Japan and South Korea have simply crossed the threshold first. Future cohorts are expected to be much smaller than these already-smaller cohorts of young people, amplifying this problem.

The World Population Crisis NO ONE Sees Coming summarizes how affluent nations are experiencing such declines in population. Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, China (due to the one child only policy’s end), and the USA are notable examples of this trend. The population in some of these nations, interestingly, is expected to be maintained through the immigration. Countries like France have fast-tracked immigration for international exchange students and skilled professionals. Nations like Sweden have notably become a haven for refugees to such an extent that their own culture has become less prominent, diluted by the influx of other peoples. Germany is in the process of reforming immigration laws, as of 2023, to attract more immigrants with the primary goal of bolstering their society. Pushing back against population decline while attracting professionals and academics is a mutually-beneficial solution for these affluent nations with birth rates in decline.

Healthier food, germ theory, modern hygiene, and urbanization saw mortality rates (averaged and over lifetimes) decrease over the past century. Their advent pushed a human population explosion to new heights. Life expectancies, globally, grew. The question arises: Why are western populations declining?

Some declines are known to have resulted from technologies like female birth control, family planning, and genetic counseling. Married couples in these affluent/connected nations are choosing to have fewer children overall, with more younger couples choosing not to reproduce. The marks of “industrialized/affluent/connected” societies can include these freedoms granted by birth control and family planning as statuses of security and wealth. Now more common in developing societies which collectively aspire to achieve this seemingly-desirable norm, declining birthrates could even be used as a benchmark when designating an affluent society as affluent.

An interview given by prominent British demographer Paul Morland provides a longer explanation of how population decline is an existential threat to the Western world. This is a clear product of the current setting of Earth and humanity. Morland cites how societies that achieve “affluence” or “connected” status seem to be condemned to experience a population decline – a side effect of affluence. In this discussion, it is notable that China was recently overtaken by India as the World’s Most Populous Nation – at 1.4 Billion. A result of China’s now-rescinded One-child policy, Chinese governing bodies recognized this stricture would lead to the fates of the populations of South Korea and Japan, but on a massive scale involving hundreds of millions of elderly people. Demographers and futurists often refer to this as a “time bomb.”

Recently compiled stats place developing African nations at the peak of global fertility rates. These nations generally aspire to become fully affluent and connected – if socioeconomic aspirations are the sole measure of affluence. The good news is that overpopulations are not the only figure with which futurists are working; depopulation can be seen as a silver lining for humanity and the Earth. Starvation and disease are not pressing concerns. Managing civilizations via advances in logistics, automated means of productions, and the computational power necessary to resolve these concerns are the better bet for the purposes of futurists, providing hope.

Affluent Romantic Trends

Some critics of the morals or values of society itself cite those ostensible changes as the reason that fewer children are born in the connected world. An ostensible trend called “hook-up culture,” however, was conclusively debunked a decade ago. Hookup culture was a sensationalized narrative that suggested young people were choosing to be single and had normalized casual sex.

Being a salacious subject, the stubborn myth of hookup culture is still perpetuated. Surging rates of STDs could be falsely cited as a proof, but those numbers only prove that more sex is unprotected and are a false equivalency. Birth rates in the USA remain in decline. Time magazine, written for the widest audience, had even gone so far as to publish a brief article to combat the misconception, Hookup Culture isn’t real. The article examined studies which had compared college students of the 80’s and 90’s to the self-reported inventories of then-current college students, revealing a pronounced decline in dating, sex, and long term relationships. The article also references that young people are waiting longer to get married, delay marriage on average by several years, and of course marry less often.

More-recent surveys reinforce the evidence of these relationship trends. Why are young people going on fewer dates, having less sex, finding fewer stable long-term relationships, and less likely to be in a committed relationship? Heidegger might reply with “Geworfenheit,” the state of the human condition when it is introduced to the unnatural environment of the Technosphere. It certainly is implicated.

Rejection Mindsets are a newly identified emergent phenomenon that can result from the use of matchmaking apps (e.g., Hinge, Bumble, Tinder). Frustration found in the romantic endeavors abounds, as people are now more likely to find romantic connections via online platforms. A plight of the affluent/connected world, this study helps to quantify the disillusionment that is correlated to these trends. There is disconnection.

Human are social creatures. It should be no wonder that when a majority of people in an affluent/connected society either choose to or have to use smartphones as an interface to search for romance and connection, the antithesis of meeting, that the process itself would create a dearth of potentially-experienced empathy or connection. This means, if totaled and averaged, a society collectively feels fewer total hours of essential human connection or total experienced empathy.

Online dating users, as of 2020, reported more mild mental health concerns than people who found “organic” dates. Futurists must consider social trends of populations as focus increases toward the level of the individual. This could be inverse causation, with people perhaps in regions with small or absent viable dating pools seeking out connection in way that is only now possible, and people who would might naturally have an inclination for the use of match apps. A consideration for averages of self-reported happiness are still a most-valuable metric.

A BBC work life article picks up the slack and eliminates some worry about the state of society and individuals, asking the question Are Gen Z More Pragmatic About Love and Sex? Generational social trends are a significant factor.

Idealization Uncarnate

Filters, airbrushes, touch-ups, cropping, edits, and re-takes have become standard in successful content creation – from cinematic masterminds to the everyday influencers of social media. New HDR standardizations becoming widespread or algorithmically-enhanced audio/video feeds are examples of how content design can make this filtered reality more alluring to the subjective eyes of many consumers.

An augmentation of reality, as translated through media, can act to contribute to escapist distractions that seem almost as if a mass delusion. Who needs reality when a filter-washed version exists? Through image-centric media that can promote superficiality, materialism, or ‘authenticity,’ does an affluent society reflect these norms? These ideals, these “filtered realities,” are surely an implicit parallel to unrealistic expectations held by many individuals. There is an excellent chance these ideals affect romance, imprinted via screen time, in affluent societies.

The specter of perfection could be larger than many people might think. When noting population trends, it’s clear that more people refuse to settle for less than they think they deserve in the romantic aspects of their lives. Waiting for the perfect partner, who by default of being human does not exist, could lead many to seek an ideal and thus never settle. This results in being single long term. Many people want children, for example, yet cannot find an acceptable prospective mate. Searching for an airbrushed partner with high mate value thus becomes a search for an ideal. This is not an all-encompassing feature of affluent societies, yet this supposition does reflect or parallel very many cultural zeitgeists. Southeast Asia and Western Europe are most likely a generation ahead of the rest of the connected/affluent world in terms of population decline. The rest of Europe, the USA, and Canada remain on track. The bleeding-edge of the technosphere and the effects upon a societies romantic trends are correlations yet seem fairly obvious despite causality being as elusive as the perfect mate.

Like seeking ideals, building unrealistic expectations regarding a suitable partner often leads to frustration that exists in a self-affirming positive feedback loop and can produce bitterness, which makes connecting with others in all echelons of life that much more difficult due to the subconscious hue that can resultantly permeate social interactions.

Weltschmerz & Momento Mori

In affluent/connected societies, a general malaise appears to affect the romantic relationships and the traditionally-accepted notions of quality of life. As the technosphere will continue to influence its creators, and whenever those grandest of paradigm shifts is necessitated, the zeitgeist of humanity will intrinsically determine how those events unfold. In the nearer future, people are generally advised to unplug, get real, and live in the moment more fully while connecting with others in real life. These trends are some of many human components for futurists to untangle and consider. It is clear that contemporary influences within affluent cultures are creating an environment that is conducive to population decline. Full stop.

Compositional Shifts

There are many subjects that I had hoped to include within the breadth of six total articles. A focus of scope, the reorientation towards trends and away from definitions, followed by a current assessment of the stage upon which humanity plays has led to this article’s focus on societies – specifically those deemed “affluent.” Industrialized, modern, affluent, and ‘connected’ are terms that can almost be interchangeably – the societies which feature these generally possess more “sophistication.” Literacy is higher, yet fake fact followers and those who have poor capacity for critical thought are nonetheless present so long as there are groups of people. It is difficult to refine data regarding what would qualify as “sophisticated” without large computational models, data sets, and subjective opinions. Tongue-in-cheek humor aside, focus must also be given to the level of analysis of the individual.

Trajectories of social trends will likely intermingle soon, dipping into QOL and the mental health at the level of social groups and individuals. Tribalism and Neo-tribalism may be useful yet could be alarmist – and the term itself is unfortunately appropriated. In-groups that connect remotely do not create negativity or resultant in negative impacts by default, and as a majority, have the opposite connective effect. If expanded upon, it should be noted that these remote forms of social connection have decentralized many socializing and are a net-positive force (pardon the pun).

Individualism, depression, hopelessness, anxiety, alienation, emergent forms of existentialism, universal/cosmic nihilism, emergent considerations yet undescribed by the ‘mainstream’ schemas, or constructs like the social clock may serve to repress or trigger resilience. These are components, in some regard, which may converge with the concerning metrics found in the romantic worlds of affluent nations as noted. Similarly, bullying, fear, and a sense of a lack of control or direction, these are a few emotions and worldviews which may result in the mental health concerns of individuals suffering outright. Heidegger’s oft-used term Entfremdung both predicts and embodies these circumstances. Burnout, globally, for example, most likely numbers in the billions of cases whenever industrializing societies are included alongside the overworked affluent populations of “live to work” cultures. Returning to Europe, portions of Latin America, and Oceania, where sensible “work to live” policies are the only rational ways of life, draw expats and the F.I.R.E. communities for such rational reasons.

Where can healthy kinds of responses to the technosphere from individuals be found, what are these responses and reactions, and how can these epiphanies be given freely to those who cope less efficiently?